Simi Valley Sophist

The Simi Valley Sophist ruminates on all manner of topics from the micro to the macro. SVS travels whatever path strikes his fancy. Encyclopedia Britannica: Sophist "Any of certain Greek lecturers, writers, and teachers in the 5th and 4th centuries BC, most of whom travelled about the Greek-speaking world giving instruction in a wide range of subjects in return ..."

Location: California, United States

Retired: 30years law enforcement-last 20 years Criminal Intelligence Detective.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Predicting Obama’s Victory in New Hampshire & Foreign Tyrants

Barack Obama was supposed to vanquish Hillary Clinton in a tsunami of New Hampshire primary votes. It was a done deal. “Everyone” in the media said so. Polling data and computer modeling assured Obama that he would slaughter Hillary.

There’s egg on the faces of the voting prognosticators today. They blew it. That’s what happens when you try to predict the future. The experts missed the mark when they had unlimited data and resources to guide their guess. And, it was a guess.

For those who read my piece “Intelligence: Art of the Best Guess,” perhaps you have a little more sympathy for the federal intelligence personnel who struggle to deem the intentions of tyrants in far away lands. Predicting the future is not so easy. Just ask the media about New Hampshire. Perhaps the media will no longer be so arrogant about George W. Bush’s actions based on intelligence estimates. Sure, get real!

Link in this Blog:
Intelligence: Art of the Best Guess